Article about John Allen Jr.'s speech in Vancouver

John Allen Jr. is always interesting. Here's an excerpt from a recent B.C. Catholic report about Allen's look at future trends in the Catholic Church:

John Allen, Jr.

During his presentation, Allen talked about his book, which looks at 10 trends changing the Church now and over the next century.

Allen said he's observed them in action during his years of studying the Church.

"I'm not suggesting to you that these are the 10 forces that ought to be shaping the future of the Catholic Church," he said. "Based upon literally hundreds of thousands of miles of travel on the highways and byways of the Catholic world, this is my attempt to identify forces that really are shaping the Catholic future, whatever you and I may privately think about them."

After naming the 10 trends, Allen zeroed in on four of them. The first was the massive demographic change of the global Catholic population.

Before the population explosion of the 20th century, he said, in 1900 there were 266 million Catholics, and 200 million lived in Europe or North America. Many of the rest lived in Latin America.

By 2000, he said, there were 1.1 billion Catholics in the world, with 720 million in the global south, which he defined as Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania.

Allen said the percentage of total Catholics who live in the global south grew from 25 per cent in 1900 to 66 per cent in 2000 and is projected to be 75 per cent by 2050.

"This, ladies and gentlemen, is the most rapid, the most sweeping, the most profound transformation of Catholic demography in more than 2000 years of Church history," Allen said. "And we are living through it right now."

Allen said this trend is significant because of the different perspectives in the global south compared to Europe and North America. He said for many in the south the supernatural is real, and all illness involves spirits, meaning that Catholics in the north need to enter into that mindset when working with the global south.

He added there is not the threat of secularization in the global south, the fear of many Catholics in the developed world. Instead, he said the issue is pluralism, from a "healthy religious marketplace."

Young Catholics

Perhaps most significant, Allen said, is that 90 per cent of the human population under the age of 14 lives in the southern hemisphere, and the Catholic Church reflects those demographics.
"When you visit a typical Catholic parish in sub-Saharan Africa, you often don't know if you are in a Church or in a daycare centre," Allen said.

He said that with so many young people, there is a sense of optimism and dynamism that is very significant.

"It gives you a sense of future, and that very much characterizes the psychology of Church leaders in the global south," he said. "They believe that their historical moment to lead has come."

In the global north, Allen said that a revival in Catholic identity is also a trend that will shape the Church.

He said this is partly a bottom-up movement, where there is a "palpable evangelical energy" among the core of committed young Catholics who grew up after the Second Vatican Council.

"These younger Catholics did not grow up in the stuffy, old Church that they're reacting against," Allen said. "They grew up in a rootless, secular world." This, he said, partly explains the renewed interest in traditions such as the Extraordinary Form of the Mass.

Biotech future

Allen also discussed outside forces that are affecting the Church, such as the biotech industry and globalization.

He said as scientific research continues to move into morally ambiguous territory, the examination of ethical questions could be "ceded to a high priesthood of scientific experts leaving the rest of us feeling disenfranchised."

It will be an important job of the Church, Allen said, to keep the average person in this ethical debate.

"It's going to be an enormous pastoral priority of the Church in the 21st century to make sure that ordinary people remain stakeholders in this conversation."

He added that globalization, which helped to "expand the circle of opportunity" to countries in the global south, continues to have that potential. He said it is important for the Church to continue to forge relationships with secular powers to make a difference, citing the Jubilee 2000 debt relief movement as a shining example.

He concluded by saying these trends could be positive or negative, depending on how Catholics react to them.

"These trends are tremendously exciting. I think they are all rich in potential to unleash creative new Catholic energy. We also have to admit that they are fraught with peril. I think the principal peril is that they could exacerbate the existing divisions within the Church."