Why the Liberals are so desperate to get the Catholic vote back
McGill political scientist Elisabeth Gidengil delivered this paper to the Canadian Political Science Association in May.
Entitled "Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat," she looks at the Liberal dominance in the year 2ooo and its precipitous decline up to the 2008 election.
"The Liberals were able to coast to victory in 2000 with the support of two key groups: visible minorities and Catholics," Gidengil writes on page 3. "By 2008, the Liberals could not longer count on their loyalty. The visible minority vote dropped 14 points between 2000 and 2004."
The NDP was the main beneficiary, she said, but in 2008, the Liberals lost "a massive 19 points."
"In fact, minority voters were almost as likely to vote Conservative in 2008 as they were to vote Liberal."
Then she goes on to say the Catholic vote "tells a similar story."
"Catholic support has dropped a massive 24 points since 2000. In 2006, Catholics were as likely to vote Conservative as Liberal. In 2008, they clearly actually preferred the Conservatives to the Liberals."
Gidengil also notes a "troubling developed for the Liberals" regarding age. "Younger voters were significantly less likely to vote Liberal in 2008 and this cost the party one and a half points."
She has a lot that's interesting to say about a range of issues, from the economy to the environment and how effective the Liberals have been on those issues. Also, she notes the negative effects of the Sponsorship Scandal.
She concludes: "The Liberals can not longer take the support of Catholics or visible minorities for granted."
On page 10, she says: "Catholic and minority voters have been the twin pillars of Liberal dominance, but their support is clearly crumbling."
Now, it has been my opinion that there are two reasons why the Liberals have lost Catholic support. One is the Liberals' ramming the redefinition of marriage through Parliament and the other was partisan messaging that painted traditional marriage supporters as unCanadian and anti-Charter and that attacked Christian voters in general.
But Gidengil says her research does not support the idea that same-sex marriage drove Catholics away from the Liberals. On page 25, she writes:
"The common assumption has been that the same-sex marriage issue cost the Liberals the support of many Catholics," she said. "This is simply not the case, at least in 2004 and 2006. Opposition to same-sex marriage did not have a significant effect on the prpobability that a Catholic vote [sic?] would vote Liberal, but in 2006, views about abortion did. What really mattered, though, in both 2004 and 2006 was the sponsorship scandal. But for the sponsorship scandal, the Catholic vote would have been eight points higher in 2004 and five points higher in 2006. The story is different in 2008. It was not Dion and it was not the green shift. In contrast to 2004 and 2006, Catholics who oppose same-sex marriage were less likely to vote Liberal. And for the first time, Catholics who believe the Bible is the literal word of God were significantly less likely to vote Liberal."
Most interesting. Most interesting.
Entitled "Anatomy of a Liberal Defeat," she looks at the Liberal dominance in the year 2ooo and its precipitous decline up to the 2008 election.
"The Liberals were able to coast to victory in 2000 with the support of two key groups: visible minorities and Catholics," Gidengil writes on page 3. "By 2008, the Liberals could not longer count on their loyalty. The visible minority vote dropped 14 points between 2000 and 2004."
The NDP was the main beneficiary, she said, but in 2008, the Liberals lost "a massive 19 points."
"In fact, minority voters were almost as likely to vote Conservative in 2008 as they were to vote Liberal."
Then she goes on to say the Catholic vote "tells a similar story."
"Catholic support has dropped a massive 24 points since 2000. In 2006, Catholics were as likely to vote Conservative as Liberal. In 2008, they clearly actually preferred the Conservatives to the Liberals."
Gidengil also notes a "troubling developed for the Liberals" regarding age. "Younger voters were significantly less likely to vote Liberal in 2008 and this cost the party one and a half points."
She has a lot that's interesting to say about a range of issues, from the economy to the environment and how effective the Liberals have been on those issues. Also, she notes the negative effects of the Sponsorship Scandal.
She concludes: "The Liberals can not longer take the support of Catholics or visible minorities for granted."
On page 10, she says: "Catholic and minority voters have been the twin pillars of Liberal dominance, but their support is clearly crumbling."
Now, it has been my opinion that there are two reasons why the Liberals have lost Catholic support. One is the Liberals' ramming the redefinition of marriage through Parliament and the other was partisan messaging that painted traditional marriage supporters as unCanadian and anti-Charter and that attacked Christian voters in general.
But Gidengil says her research does not support the idea that same-sex marriage drove Catholics away from the Liberals. On page 25, she writes:
"The common assumption has been that the same-sex marriage issue cost the Liberals the support of many Catholics," she said. "This is simply not the case, at least in 2004 and 2006. Opposition to same-sex marriage did not have a significant effect on the prpobability that a Catholic vote [sic?] would vote Liberal, but in 2006, views about abortion did. What really mattered, though, in both 2004 and 2006 was the sponsorship scandal. But for the sponsorship scandal, the Catholic vote would have been eight points higher in 2004 and five points higher in 2006. The story is different in 2008. It was not Dion and it was not the green shift. In contrast to 2004 and 2006, Catholics who oppose same-sex marriage were less likely to vote Liberal. And for the first time, Catholics who believe the Bible is the literal word of God were significantly less likely to vote Liberal."
Most interesting. Most interesting.
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